Such issues require debate and evidence on at least two key things: the critical range within which concern for R and background infection levels take over any concern even for incremental opening of the economy, a range which may, of course, vary across jurisdictions; and more explicit use of values of health and life which already exist and are used in public policy (Viscusi and Aldy, Reference Viscusi and Aldy2003; Donaldson et al., Reference Donaldson, Baker and Mason2011; Baker et al., Reference Baker, Donaldson, Mason and Jones-Lee2014). The question then becomes, given, on any particular day, a particular starting point for each of R and the economy, where do we go from here (1f). "peerReview": true, Despite denials of politicians and other advisors, trade-offs have already been apparent in many policy decisions addressing the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its social and economic consequences. To date, COVID-19 has sickened close to 9,000 front-line health-care workers and killed 16. "metricsAbstractViews": false, To aid presentation, assume the MC of reducing R or economic expansion are constant and equal (1e). JHE welcomes new submissions on topics related to COVID-19, Download the ‘Understanding the Publishing Process’ PDF, Check the status of your submitted manuscript in the. The focus is on the benefit gained from the next unit of resources, or that lost from having one unit less. Often, the thought process behind marginal analysis is better described via a sequence of conceptual diagrams, which we now do in the context of emerging from lockdown – see Figure 1. As a result of the significant disruption that is being caused by the COVID-19 pandemic we are very aware that many researchers will have difficulty in meeting the timelines associated with our peer review process during normal times. Trade-offs, trade-offs everywhere, but not a health economist in sight. However, trade-offs have been palpable at all levels of decision making. The final diagram (1 h) shows that, when a consequence of any economic expansion is for R to fall back into 0.7–1.0 range, the marginal gains from any such expansion will be too small to justify going past a certain point, beyond which the gains from focussing on R far outweigh those of the economy. Indeed, we would also contend that such frameworks, and the way of thinking they embody, could have been used in earlier stages of the pandemic and even in preparation for it. As with all submissions to the JHE (and as stated on our submission page): Articles need to make a significant contribution in answering an interesting and important question in health economics. for this article. Even economists would recognise that there is a level of pandemic where trade-offs do not matter, or, at least, are so obvious that little analysis is required. Explore a collection of articles and other resources on the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, including clinical reports, management guidelines, and commentary. JHE has a strong history of publishing papers on relevant topics such as: the short, medium, and longer term health effects of epidemics, pandemics, and other disease outbreaks; causes and consequences of public policies targeting disease mitigation such as vaccination; and effects of economic downturns on health behaviors, health care utilization, and health. Health and social care have been traded off against each other, with investments in large (often unused) health care capacity at the expense of services and equipment for people in care homes. View aims and scope Submit your article Guide for authors. This data will be updated every 24 hours. We have made a series of recently published papers on these topics freely available through April 2021 in a Virtual Special Issue. 2.827 Impact Factor. "isLogged": "0", Render date: 2020-11-29T06:02:57.014Z Economics in the time of COVID-19: A new eBook Richard Baldwin, Beatrice Weder di Mauro 06 March 2020 As usual, the pandemic is both an aggregate demand and an aggregate supply shock, but the fact that it has hit China first and hardest, and the supply chain implications of this, make it something new. Full text views reflects PDF downloads, PDFs sent to Google Drive, Dropbox and Kindle and HTML full text views. HEALTH ECONOMICS EDITORIAL BOARD STATEMENT ON THE JOURNAL’S ROLE DURING A PANDEMIC. This essay examines the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health inequalities. Perhaps (health) economics is not ‘scientific’ enough. Second, and relatedly, nor have many governments openly admitted the need for trade-offs, not only within which lives may be lost but also tolerated. First, we invoke the above-mentioned notion of diminishing MB, whereby the MBs of reducing the R-value from 1 is positive but gradually reduces. The economic stimuli of governments across the globe have traded-off the future against the present and sectors of the economy with each other. Hence, the downward sloping MB line for R and, correspondingly, for ‘Opening the economy’ (1c and 1d). But surely, health economics has more to offer as a way of thinking and, thus, in contributing to honest debate about emerging trade-offs once R is controlled and the curve flattened. To decline or learn more, visit our Cookies page. "crossMark": true, Is there an amount of economic expansion which might provide benefits to the population so great by which an upward drift in R, with its consequent risks, would be permitted? No more so than in the US, where Federal and State governments have often been at loggerheads over the health and economic trade-offs of releasing (and imposing) lockdown, as well as in the now-numerous other locations, internationally, where local lockdowns have been imposed. Their use, ultimately, means facing up to the question of the value to be placed on life and health vs opening the economy at the margin, accepting that that value may change according to whether we are above or below a critical value of R. In our view, the trade-offs referred to in this paper are inevitable and, for purposes of optimising overall human welfare, are better recognised, analysed and publicly debated.
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